Saturday 2 January 2016

The 2015 El Niño

The tell tale signs of inconsistent denial are apparent as climate contrarians attempt to deal with strange weather occurring over the globe in 2015.


Strange weather

2015 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record when looking at the average of global temperatures. There are extreme and often strange weather patterns being reported particularly towards the end on the 2015 year. Many of the weather patterns that have occurred are those that are to be expected in an El Niño year including not only droughts in Indonesia helping the spread of wildfires but also far afield as in California bringing rain after a prolonged period of drought. A milder winter and so far with extreme rain in the UK in December, however, is not so easily associated with the El Niño and certainly a short period of exceptionally warm weather all the way towards the North Pole due to weakened jet stream is not what was expected. It seems we see the effect of global warming contributing to weather patterns including the El Niño but in other cases overshadowing some of the expectations of an El Niño.

Seeing half the cycle.

What is to be expected though is the typical climate contrarian viewpoint regards these weather patterns that one comes across in comments on social media sites and blogs. True to form you will see the contrarian tell you that these extreme weather patterns and the global average temperature reaching a new high record and that these are all due to the presence of the El Niño. Now one could forgive them for believing that the El Nino has contributed to all these events but what may be of surprise (to those unfamiliar to the strategies of the anthropogenic global warming denier) is that most of these arguing these points seem to have become sudden experts of the El Nino which is part of a larger ocean and atmosphere weather cycle, ENSO, that not only changes rainfall and drought patterns but permits the atmosphere to warm largely from heat from the oceans. Only a few months ago many of these new “experts” could be seen denying the weather pattern associated with the El Nino when this weather pattern was storing heat in the oceans.

In some years surface temperature do not rise and one reason among other possible natural cyclic variations for this is that the ENSO cycle is causing heat to be stored in the oceans in spite of an increase in greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. This ability of heat to be stored is often denied by the contrarian.

In other years the temperatures of the surface can increase rapidly as the El Nino contributes to the global warming. This contribution is readily accepted by these same contrarians.


Of course this ability to only accept half a cycle can be seen with contrarians in the past as they attempt to deal with the carbon cycle and CO2 concentrations.